Maybe I just missed it, maybe everybody did, but I found this Jan 1 piece from Reuters alarming [via Today in Iraq]. The Iraqi government sounds confident the US military is going after Sadr very soon.
ANALYSIS-Iraqis see U.S. push against Sadr's Mehdi Army
01 Jan 2007 18:20:11 GMT
Source: Reuters
By Mariam Karouny
BAGHDAD, Jan 1 (Reuters) - U.S.-led forces are likely to launch a limited New Year offensive against Shi'ite cleric Moqtada al-Sadr's Mehdi Army militia, blamed for sectarian death squad killings, senior Iraqi officials say.
The Pentagon, in a report last month, described Mehdi Army militias as the biggest threat to Iraq's security and diplomats say Washington is impatient to confront them.
How soon? In the next few days if this article is accurate.
"There will be limited and targeted operations against members of the Mehdi Army," a senior Shi'ite official told Reuters. "The ground is full of surprises but we think around Jan. 5 there will be some operations. I can say no more."
He can say no more. Quite the friggin' sphinx.
Sadr's people in parliament have been boycotting the government since Maliki met with Bush last month. Before they will return, Sadr's faction wants a timetable for US withdrawal. Since the government can't pass legislation without his people's participation, other Shiites fear the government might collapse.
To put on the old cynic's hat for a moment, that situation could explain the deadly US raid on one of Sadr's aides on December 27 and the British raid of a Basra police station on December 25. If the US thought it could draw out Sadr and seriously cripple his Mehdi Army in a quick fight, Sadr would lose his strongman cred and his faction would likely collapse.
If these raids were meant to provoke Sadr, they certainly did it in a way that did no favors for Maliki. Both have left Maliki looking weak, particularly the US raid. But if the US did want a fight, they would do it in a way that: 1) showed no connection to Maliki's government, and 2) tempted Sadr with a opportunity to show he is stronger than Maliki.
The execution on the other hand was certainly meant to hand Maliki a bone. Until the cell phone video came out, it looked clean and authoritarian. Now it just looks bumbling and corrupt. And the chants of "Moqtada! Moqtada!" couldn't really make Maliki very happy either.
Again, I don't know if the raids and execution were a coordinated strategy to draw Sadr out, but there is one final interesting point in this article from Monday:
"These people will only respond to force and this is what they will get," the senior Alliance official said. "A decisive battle is not agreed yet but limited operations just began."
Not just about to begin, just began.
A map, circa 2003, for your reference pleasure: